UFC Fight Night Nashville is fast approaching, so lets talk fight picks, and of course, the odds. Cage prophet’s picks are listed below with betting lines dated 04/19/17.
- Swanson vs Lobov – Swanson
- Sanchez vs. Iaquinta – Sanchez
- St. Preux vs. Rogerio De Lima – De Lima (not confident)
- Dodson vs. Wineland – Dodson
- Lauzon vs Ray – Lauzon
- Ellenberger vs. Perry – Perry
- Leites vs. Alvey – Alvey
- Ortiz vs. Moreno – Moreno
Let’s be honest, Artem Lobov has no business fighting Cub Swanson. In my opinion it’s a joke that this fight is even a main event. Cub is a legendary brawler and BJJ black belt. Artem Barely a .500 fighter, and Conor Mcgregors personal punching bag. Tie Cub into parlays to maximize profit, Cub is a must have for Draft Kings lineups.
Sanchez at +335 is my favorite underdog pick on this card, he is facing Iaquinta as he comes back to the sport after a 2 year lay off. Look for ring rust to play a factor as Sanchez incites wild brawls to come out on top. I would play this conservatively, Iaquinta is a dangerous fighter and ring rust effects everyone differently, with that being said I think +335 on Iaquinta in this position is just too good of a line to pass on.
St. Preux vs. Rogerio De Lima, this is a coin flip. St. Preux has been looking down and out lately. He’s lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Granted: 3 of those are top 5 contenders, but none the less he seems to have lost his spark. This is the exact moment in a fighter’s career where we see them hit the gas to get back on track or crumble. All of De Lima’s last six fights, in which he has gone 4-2, have ended in the first round. He has heavy hands and boasts a 73% KO/TKO ratio. I think this fight smells like an upset, look for De Lima to get an early KO against OSP.
In Dodson vs. Wineland I expect to see Dodson’s speed and angles overwhelm Wineland. Nothing against Wineland’s technical skill I just think Dodson is too much for him here. There is always the possibility that Wineland can land the KO punch, but Dodson proved to be too elusive for John Lineker to finish the deal in 5 rounds, I believe Dodson will be able to last three with Wineland and win by decision.
Lauzon vs Ray. This is great matchup featuring two well rounded fighters. Lauzon will be the biggest test of Ray’s career which is why it’s strange to see Lauzon in the dog spot at +175. I’m picking Lauzon because he has an excellent ground game and violent elbows while standing. I just don’t think Ray can hang on the feet and when he goes to the ground look for Lauzon to win by submission.
Ellenberger vs. Perry. Perry by TKO. Ellenberger had a career resurgence recently but Mike Perry is not doing him any favors to get back on track. Both of these men are heaving hitting stand and bang types, I think the younger chin will prevail.
Leites vs. Alvey. SMILIN’ SAM, I love this guy he’s made me a lot of money. He’s facing a perfect matchup in Leites if he can keep the fight standing. If he can avoid going to the ground look for him to power shot his way to another KO/TKO victory.
Ortiz vs. Moreno. The young gun Brandon Moreno shocked the world when he submitted Smolka in his UFC debut as the biggest underdog on the card. I’m taking him as an underdog yet again at +175. This kid’s submission game is no joke. He’s a tough competent glappler facing off against Ortiz who has a much more powerful striking game. Moreno is crafty on the feet, however, and I think he’ll stand early with Ortiz allowing him to push pressure to find an opening for a takedown. Cage Prophet predicts Moreno by submission.