UFC Fight Night 109 will be taking place this Sunday, 11 AM for the American East coast and a shockingly early 8 AM for those of us in PST. While this card should be exciting to watch there aren’t too many sure bets for me. with that being said here are my favorites:
- Alex Nicholson +140 (KO/TKO +325)
- Chris Camozzi -180
- Ben Saunders -110
- Cirkunov -400 (Inside the Distance: -160)
- Big Dog Bet: Glover Teixeira +270 (KO/TKO +600)
Some of these can be shied away from, namely Glover Teixeira and Chris Camozzi. In the case of Glover Teixeira the most likely outcome of this fight is to see Gustafsson victorious by decision, maybe a late TKO, but the power and wrestling prowess of Teixeira shouldn’t be discounted. At +270, Glover is worth a small wager to see him get the W. To maximize this bet I will be playing Teixeira to win inside the distance at +435. To win by KO/TKO is even greater at +600, which is the most likely method of Glover winning due to his powerful punches. With that being said, I would still just play ITD because a submission is always a possibility. In short don’t let the odds fool you there is great value in Glover with a small correctly played wager.
Chris Camozzi coming off two straight losses doesn’t seem to be the hottest ticket in town. But there is value in him, his losses came from Dan Kelly and Thales Leites. While these aren’t the top names of the division they are still solid competition and tough outings for Camozzi. In Camozzi’s opponents last four fights, Smith has only won two. Both by decision. I see this as an opportunity for Camozzi to settle into his rhythm without too much danger and establish his game plan. To me this fight looks like a decision victory for Camozzi, but we can always hope he gets the job done inside the distance.
As for my other picks, confident on all. When it comes to Nicholson, Saunders, and Cirkunov getting the job done its a mix and match parlay buffet. Maximize profits by taking Cirkunov inside the distance, which is my most confident play on the card. I expect to see Saunders get the job done on the ground via ground and pound KO/TKO or SUB, and Nicholson via KO at +325 is a great bet, but taking him straight up as a dog at +140 is a sure fire way to kick the card off.
What are your picks? be sure to share with Cage Prophet, and if you disagree we want to hear why. We’re always ready to discuss our picks and share our reasoning if we gloss over some details in the article. And for the bettors that pay for services, follow us and see how much money you make for free before paying for a service. Because the betting services will charge you for what you get here for free. No one has all the answers, just educated predictions.