- Gunnar Nelson -150
- Cynthia Calvillo -200
- Paul Felder +115
- Paul Craig +185
- Albert Morales +319
UFC Fight Night Glasgow is a great card for some underdog picks. Even with my favored picks the underdog opponents for those have a case to be made for a bet, specifically Calderwood at +185. A lot of people think her standup game will be too much for Cynthia Calvillo to handle, and they may be right. But, what I know for certain is Calvillo is a monster on the ground, and both of Calderwood’s UFC losses came by submission. This matchup is giving me flashbacks to Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz when the only argument to bet Karolina was “If she keeps the fight standing…” That argument isn’t good enough to bet Calderwood in this case. Yes, she has a 66% take down defense ratio, but when this fight inevitably finds its way to the mat, it will be all about Calvillo. I will take Cynthia Calvillo at -200 and would also suggest a prop bet for either ITD or SUB.
As for Gunnar Nelson, after dismantling Alan Jouban, I’m surprised this line is set so low against a #14 ranked opponent. Nelson is knocking at the door of the top five and I think after this fight we’ll be seeing Nelson entering the octagon against the likes of Magney or Masvidal. If not he’ll be heavily favored against anyone below the top ten so this is a great opportunity to get a profitable line on Nelson.
Now lets talk dogs. Let’s be honest, Felder should’t be a dog against Stevie Ray. Ray’s most recent victory over Joe Lauzon has been protested by many to be a robbery, and to be honest I agree. Overall Lauzon controlled the majority of the fight and fell victim to a late flurry in round three that won over the opinion of the judges. That’s not going to work with Felder, I see Felder as the best dog pick on this card and I expect him to expose Ray’s technical flaws in his standup game.
When it comes to Craig and Morales, Craig has a far superior ground game to his opponent Rountree, but Rountree has heavy hands and will certainly test Craig’s chin. If Craig is to get the job done I expect to see it on the ground, I suggest peppering Craig in to sweeten the deal on light parlay bets. Morales is worth a straight bet for light money, this is my “Disrespect” line of the week. He’s way more viable to win this fight than the line indicates at +319. He’s a well rounded fighter with a high finish percentage on both the ground and feet. His only loss came by way of KO from the hands of Thomas Almeida who is stiff competition for anyone in the division, Morales is my biggest dog pick of the night.
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