UFC on Fox 25 in Long Island New York is finally here. Time to make some picks. I’m going to list all the bets I like and then we’ll break it down a little.
- Gian Villante – 167 (By KO/TKO +120)
- Does Villante vs. Cummins Go The Distance? NO – 145
- Alex Oliveria +152 (By KO/TKO +600)
- Bochniak +235
- Kyle Bochniak/Jeremy Kennedy Under 2 1/2 +220
I’ve chosen to stay away from the main event here for a reason, hear me out. I really do believe Kelvin Gastelum -160 will defeat Chris Weidman, probably by KO/TKO. But Weidman is very good at getting take downs and securing rounds, if he can take Kelvin deep into this fight I think Weidman will win. That being said he needs to survive the first two rounds which is where Kelvin will be most dangerous. If I could live bet this I would have my money on Kelvin but if it goes past 2 rounds I think it’s Weidman’s fight to lose. So I’m just going to sit back and enjoy that one.
As for my bets: Gian Villante should be able to keep the fight standing against Cummins and test his chin. Both men have shown durability issues and I think Villante has the more technical striking so my pick is for Villante to come out on top, but could Cummins land a bomb? Yes, the power is definitely still there and Villante was wobbled multiple times against Rua before being put away in his last fight. I think a great play on this fight is the fight will not go the distance prop at -145.
Look for Oliveria to display his underrated anti wrestling to make the fight dirty in the clinch. Make no mistake about it Oliveria has the skills and the power to defeat LaFlare, I think this line is way off and +600 KO/TKO is too good for me not to touch. Cowboy Oliveria by KO/TKO.
Kyle Bochniak came on the Cage Prophet Podcast a couple weeks ago and emphatically stated his case against Jeremy Kennedy. Kennedy does his best work against the cage and likes to suck his opponents to the ground and grind them out with wrestling. Kyle is mobile, powerful, and has an underrated ground game. Look for Bochniak to keep this fight away from kennedy’s strengths and stand in the middle of the octagon throwing bombs. Bochniak +235 and under 2 1/2 rounds for +220 is great value. Those are my picks, let us know what you think in the comments below or on twitter.