UFC Fight Night 116 is upon us. Here are my best bets on the card. I really like Aubin-Mercier to get the job done tonight over Tony Martin. I think Martin has shown some toughens in his UFC career but toughness-Mercier is an absolute nightmare to deal with on the ground and a fairly accurate and calculated striker on the feet. While Mercier isn’t a dynamic striker he takes accurate pot-shots and eventually finds a way to the ground where he inevitably takes his opponent’s back and finishes by rear naked choke. I like Aubin-Mercier to get the job done late round two or early round three.
Unfortunately, Thiago Alves pulled out of his fight against Mike Perry. So we are losing a lot of value on Perry as he has dropped from a -150 bet to -460 against Alex Reyes. -460 is a very thick line but I like pairing it up with Aubin-Mercier for +123.
As for Lombard vs. Smith. I think Smith will get the job done. However, this fight has sloppy written all over it and could be a three round war. I like over 1.5 rounds at -130. I think this fight could go the distance.