Category: ODDS TALK

Odds Talk: UFC Fight Night 109 Predictions and Betting Picks

UFC Fight Night 109 will be taking place this Sunday, 11 AM for the American East coast and a shockingly early 8 AM for those of us in PST. While this card should be exciting to watch there aren’t too many sure bets for me. with that being said here are my favorites:

  • Alex Nicholson +140 (KO/TKO +325)
  • Chris Camozzi -180
  • Ben Saunders -110
  • Cirkunov -400 (Inside the Distance: -160)
  • Big Dog Bet: Glover Teixeira +270 (KO/TKO +600)

Some of these can be shied away from, namely Glover Teixeira and Chris Camozzi. In the case of Glover Teixeira the most likely outcome of this fight is to see Gustafsson victorious by decision, maybe a late TKO, but the power and wrestling prowess of Teixeira shouldn’t be discounted. At +270, Glover is worth a small wager to see him get the W. To maximize this bet I will be playing Teixeira to win inside the distance at +435. To win by KO/TKO is even greater at +600, which is the most likely method of Glover winning due to his powerful punches. With that being said, I would still just play ITD because a submission is always a possibility. In short don’t let the odds fool you there is great value in Glover with a small correctly played wager.

Chris Camozzi coming off two straight losses doesn’t seem to be the hottest ticket in town. But there is value in him, his losses came from Dan Kelly and Thales Leites. While these aren’t the top names of the division they are still solid competition and tough outings for Camozzi. In Camozzi’s opponents last four fights, Smith has only won two. Both by decision. I see this as an opportunity for Camozzi to settle into his rhythm without too much danger and establish his game plan. To me this fight looks like a decision victory for Camozzi, but we can always hope he gets the job done inside the distance.

As for my other picks, confident on all. When it comes to Nicholson, Saunders, and Cirkunov getting the job done its a mix and match parlay buffet. Maximize profits by taking Cirkunov inside the distance, which is my most confident play on the card. I expect to see Saunders get the job done on the ground via ground and pound KO/TKO or SUB, and Nicholson via KO at +325 is a great bet, but taking him straight up as a dog at +140 is a sure fire way to kick the card off.

What are your picks? be sure to share with Cage Prophet, and if you disagree we want to hear why. We’re always ready to discuss our picks and share our reasoning if we gloss over some details in the article. And for the bettors that pay for services, follow us and see how much money you make for free before paying for a service. Because the betting services will charge you for what you get here for free. No one has all the answers, just educated predictions.

UFC 211 Recap

UFC 211 is in the books, and what a night to remember. UFC 211 marked the most successful night of Cage Prophet Predictions with a profit of 40+ units for our personal bets. If you followed Cage Prophet’s free four line parlay suggestion your bet cashed at +800. Gambling aside, the caliber of fights witnessed was second to none. UFC 211, easily the biggest card of 2017, matched right up with any other card in recent memory. To the casual fans this card may have been glossed over, but to the real fight fans it doesn’t get much better.

Cage Prophet was in attendance in Dallas for UFC 211, live coverage was conducted on twitter. Be sure to follow @cageprophet for future live coverage of events as well as live night of bet picks as lines continue to shift right up until the cage door locks. Be on the lookout for this weeks podcast where Kevin will discuss the entire event and break down his favorite fights individually.

Full Results:

Main card
Stipe Miocic def. Junior dos Santos via first-round TKO
Joanna Jedrzejczyk def. Jessica Andrade via unanimous decision
Demian Maia def. Jorge Masvidal via split decision
Frankie Edgar def. Yair Rodriguez via second-round TKO (doctor’s stoppage)
David Branch def. Krzysztof Jotko via split decision

Undercard
Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier declared a no-contest (accidental foul)
Jason Knight def. Chas Skelly via third-round TKO
Chase Sherman def. Rashad Coulter via second-round TKO
James Vick def. Marco Polo Reyes via first-round TKO
Cortney Casey def. Jessica Aguilar via unanimous decision
Enrique Barzola def. Gabriel Benitez via unanimous decision
Gadzhimurad Antigulov def. Joachim Christensen via submission (rear-naked choke) R1

 

UFC 211: Odds Talk

If you haven’t listened to the latest Cage Prophet Podcast you probably should. The podcast is under 15 minutes and covers most of the bets on this page. However, there are a few bets on here that are new and some people are just old fashioned and want to read anyways. So for all you nerds that still like to read, here are the Cage Prophet picks of UFC 211.

  • Stipe Miocic -125
  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk -175
  • Damien Maia +115
  • Frankie Edgar -120
  • Dustin Poirier -120
  • James Vick -350
  • Jason Knight +110
  • Enrique Barzola +120

PROP BETS

  • Dustin Poirier By KO/TKO +365 hedge with Alvarez by KO/TKO +565
  • Dustin Poirier wins in Round 2 +725
  • Chas Skelly vs Jason Knight – Under 2.5 Rounds +165
  • Maia vs Masvidal – Under 1.5 Rounds +165

 

And If you’re feeling squirrelly – 4 line Parlay: Joanna, Edgar, Vick, Stipe

UFC Nashville Prop Bets

UFC Nashville will be going down this evening and Cage Prophet has come up with some last minute plays for you.

Our first play suggestion is placing even money on Sanchez by KO/TKO and Iaquinta by KO/TKO. Both heavy hitting fighters with KO potential, Iaquinta is coming into his first fight in 2 years and may have some ring rust. This is a perfect opportunity for Sanchez to get a KO finish on an opponent that is not on his “A” game, the line is just too pretty not to touch at +1500. The more likely outcome is an Iaquinta victory by KO/TKO. This line is set at +130. Sanchez has recently been showing weakness in his legendary chin when Joe Lauzon knocked him out in the first round at UFC 200. Age and accumulative damage may have finally caught up with Sanchez.  If you place even money on both outcomes, there will be profit if a KO/TKO occurs. Cage profit is confident the finish will occur one way or the other and recommends this bet.

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Our second play is “Smilin” Sam Alvey to win by KO/TKO at +485

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Sam has a long history of proving his hands to be his primary tool for getting the W. If he can keep his takedown defense on point for this fight he will be able to render his opponents ground strength useless. Cage Prophet thinks Sam will keep his win streak rolling and get the job done with his fists by way of KO/TKO.

Enjoy the fights and good luck.

Bellator 178: Straus vs. Pitbull Predictions

Bellator 178 is set to kick off today live and free on Spike TV. The card’s main event features the 4th time Daniel Staus and Patricio “Pitbull” Freire will square off. You read that correctly, this is a rare “tetralogy” fight. Pitbull has won the first two times he faced Straus but lost in their most recent fight in which Straus took the belt by way of Unanimous decision. We’ll see if Straus can defend his belt tonight and tie the record at 2-2 as Pitbull looks to regain his throne. Cage Prophet thinks Pitbull will come out on top in this one. At +135 he’s got great value.

In the Co-main event we have Ilima Macfarlane taking on Jessica Middleton. Both Women are undefeated. Ilima has been outspoken about her time for a title shot, look for her experience to give her the edge in this one. Mcfarlane by KO/TKO. Macfarlane is a heavy favorite at -480, so to maximize profit you may want to tie her into a few parlays.

Mazzota vs. Mckee: Mazzota is a hot Prospect at 12-1 his only loss coming from the current UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody Garbrandt. His opponent is a tough customer in A.J. Mckee. Mckee is a heavy favorite at -500, but Cage Prophet says take the dog! Mazotta at +385 is well worth the bet! Look for Mazzota’s superior grappling and submission game to get him the win.

 

UFC Fight Night Nashville Predictions

UFC Fight Night Nashville is fast approaching, so lets talk fight picks, and of course, the odds.  Cage prophet’s picks are listed below with betting lines dated 04/19/17.

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  • Swanson vs Lobov – Swanson
  • Sanchez vs. Iaquinta – Sanchez
  • St. Preux vs. Rogerio De Lima – De Lima (not confident)
  • Dodson vs. Wineland – Dodson
  • Lauzon vs Ray – Lauzon
  • Ellenberger vs. Perry – Perry
  • Leites vs. Alvey – Alvey
  • Ortiz vs. Moreno – Moreno

 

Let’s be honest, Artem Lobov has no business fighting Cub Swanson. In my opinion it’s a joke that this fight is even a main event. Cub is a legendary brawler and BJJ black belt. Artem Barely a .500 fighter, and Conor Mcgregors personal punching bag. Tie Cub into parlays to maximize profit, Cub is a must have for Draft Kings lineups.

Sanchez at +335 is my favorite underdog pick on this card, he is facing Iaquinta as he comes back to the sport after a 2 year lay off. Look for ring rust to play a factor as Sanchez incites wild brawls to come out on top. I would play this conservatively, Iaquinta is a dangerous fighter and ring rust effects everyone differently, with that being said I think +335 on Iaquinta in this position is just too good of a line to pass on.

St. Preux vs. Rogerio De Lima, this is a coin flip. St. Preux has been looking down and out lately. He’s lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Granted: 3 of those are top 5 contenders, but none the less he seems to have lost his spark. This is the exact moment in a fighter’s career where we see them hit the gas to get back on track or crumble. All of De Lima’s last six fights, in which he has gone 4-2, have ended in the first round. He has heavy hands and boasts a 73% KO/TKO ratio. I think this fight smells like an upset, look for De Lima to get an early KO against OSP.

In Dodson vs. Wineland I expect to see Dodson’s speed and angles overwhelm Wineland. Nothing against Wineland’s technical skill I just think Dodson is too much for him here. There is always the possibility that Wineland can land the KO punch, but Dodson proved to be too elusive for John Lineker to finish the deal in 5 rounds, I believe Dodson will be able to last three with Wineland and win by decision.

Lauzon vs Ray. This is great matchup featuring two well rounded fighters. Lauzon will be the biggest test of Ray’s career which is why it’s strange to see Lauzon in the dog spot at +175. I’m picking Lauzon because he has an excellent ground game and violent elbows while standing. I just don’t think Ray can hang on the feet and when he goes to the ground look for Lauzon to win by submission.

Ellenberger vs. Perry. Perry by TKO. Ellenberger had a career resurgence recently but Mike Perry is not doing him any favors to get back on track. Both of these men are heaving hitting stand and bang types, I think the younger chin will prevail.

Leites vs. Alvey. SMILIN’ SAM, I love this guy he’s made me a lot of money. He’s facing a perfect matchup in Leites if he can keep the fight standing. If he can avoid going to the ground look for him to power shot his way to another KO/TKO victory.

Ortiz vs. Moreno. The young gun Brandon Moreno shocked the world when he submitted Smolka in his UFC debut as the biggest underdog on the card. I’m taking him as an underdog yet again at +175. This kid’s submission game is no joke. He’s a tough competent glappler facing off against Ortiz who has a much more powerful striking game. Moreno is crafty on the feet, however, and I think he’ll stand early with Ortiz allowing him to push pressure to find an opening for a takedown. Cage Prophet predicts Moreno by submission.

UFC on Fox 24 Predictions

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UFC on Fox 24 is a very under-rated card. The last 3 fights could each headline their own fight night. Waterson vs. Namajunas, Souza vs. Whittaker, and Johnson vs. Reis… for free? yes please. A lot of lines are out of control on this card skewed heavily towards the favorites. Lines are going as far as -900 for “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. While seeing big numbers in the + is exciting, it’s easy to start making bad decisions. So to help you out Cage Prophet has compiled the list of the best underdog bets on the card.

  • Michelle Waterson +110
  • Roy Nelson +120
  • Green +300
  • Vieira +180
  • Whittaker +125

The list above appears in order of confidence. Think about it as I confidently think Waterson will win and am pretty certain Whittaker will lose. In fact don’t bet Whittaker because Souza will sub him, but as we all know he is super powerful and there is always a puncher’s chance. If you want my legitimate picks they are posted below. Stay tuned for parlay picks, and let us know who you think will win.

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Does MMA Math Work?

You hear it all the time: “MMA math doesn’t work”. And for the most part that is a correct statement. It isn’t an exact science. But what MMA math can do is supply a blue print for studying tape on where a fighter has a significant edge. News recently surfaced that Holly Holm will be taking on Bethe Correia in the main event of UFC Fight Night 111. I’m about to show you how MMA math points to Holm being a solid bet to win the bout.

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First: for those of you who don’t know what MMA math is, here is a brief crash course.

  • If Fighter A beats Fighter B. And Fighter B beats Fighter C. Then Fighter A will beat Fighter C.
  • In math language:  A>B  &  B>C,   Therefore A>C

Now we all know this isn’t true. There are a multitude of examples proving this logic not only to be flawed, but outright false. However, this is the starting point of the roadmap that allows you to look at each fighters strengths and weaknesses. Specifically what was the downfall of each fighter in the fights in question.

For this example we are going to cite the common opponent of Ronda Rousey, she is a perfect gauge because all three women competed against each other in a 4 month time period. Making her a consistent gauge of both women’s talent at a recent time.

Ronda beat Bethe in a round one TKO flurry, the fight was over before it even began. She quickly overwhelmed Bethe for a first round stoppage. 4 months later, Ronda lost by a violent 2nd round KO by Holm. This points us to analyze Holm and Corriea’s striking. And what do we see when we look at it? Holm is a World Class Boxer. She defended 16 world titles in 3 weight classes as a professional boxer. She made Ronda Rousey, at the height of her career, look like a complete amateur. Holm picked Rousey apart on the feet until ending the fight by head kick KO in the second round.

Now lets re-visit Holm vs. Correia. Bethe Correia is predominately a striker. Yet her striking is wild, sloppy, and she fights with pressure. This is not going to match up well against a taller more calculated counter puncher. Bethe will try to put pressure on Holm with a wild strike, Holm will slip out of range and return fire on angles. If you want to see Holm’s work at her finest just go back and watch Holm vs. Rousey at UFC 193. Then go watch any of Bethe’s fights and tell me if you think this will go any other way.

Cage Prophet says bet on Holly Holm.

Keep in mind: Cage Prophet also used the Holm vs. Rousey fight as a source to call the Nunes vs. Rousey betting pick. Holm vs. Rousey was the first fight that exposed Rousey’s lack of competent striking skills. Previous to this fight we saw Rousey running through all competition by immediately taking the fight to the ground, with the exception of mauling Correia. Based on the knowledge that Nunes was a very dangerous and powerful striker we reviewed the Holm tape and predicted Nunes by KO/TKO. That pick was based on knowing what to look for in match ups, but when common opponents are a factor MMA math can be a powerful tool to start searching for what fighter has an edge.

Did you find this helpful? Let us know in the comments below.

UFC 210: Line Movement

Throughout the week we continue to see fluctuation in the betting lines for the co-main and main event of UFC 210.

Mousasi vs. Weidman has shifted from Mousasi -130, Weidman +110 to a pick-em at an even -110. For Weidman fans I would suggest sitting out until Friday and get your money’s worth as I think we will see Weidman creep back into an underdog position. My play on this is to get Mousasi while he is hot at almost even odds.

In the main event Cormier vs Johnson seems to be slipping back to even odds as well. Sitting out on this bet until friday or early saturday may be best in this situation as well. I think you will see DC slip back into an underdog position and Cage Prophet is predicting a successful title defense. For the Johnson fans: Grab this line while it is hot! -115 is going to be the best you’ll see a line on Rumble before he hits the cage on saturday.

As always, bet responsibly and enjoy the fights.