Category: ODDS TALK

UFC Fight Night 116 Betting Picks

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UFC Fight Night 116 is upon us. Here are my best bets on the card. I really like Aubin-Mercier to get the job done tonight over Tony Martin. I think Martin has shown some toughens in his UFC career but toughness-Mercier is an absolute nightmare to deal with on the ground and a fairly accurate and calculated striker on the feet. While Mercier isn’t a dynamic striker he takes accurate pot-shots and eventually finds a way to the ground where he inevitably takes his opponent’s back and finishes by rear naked choke. I like Aubin-Mercier to get the job done late round two or early round three.

Unfortunately, Thiago Alves pulled out of his fight against Mike Perry. So we are losing a lot of value on Perry as he has dropped from a -150 bet to -460 against Alex Reyes. -460 is a very thick line but I like pairing it up with Aubin-Mercier for +123.

As for Lombard vs. Smith. I think Smith will get the job done. However, this fight has sloppy written all over it and could be a three round war. I like over 1.5 rounds at -130. I think this fight could go the distance.

UFC 216 Main Event: Ferguson vs. Lee

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Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee are officially set to headline UFC 216 for the Lightweight Interim Belt. The event will take place at the T-Mobile Arena on October 7, 2017.

Ferguson (23-3) has been inactive (not by choice) since November 2016 when he beat Rafael Dos Anjos by decision. Since Khabib notoriously didn’t make weight for UFC 209, Ferguson has been very vocal about wanting another Interim title shot. With Khabib allegedly not healthy enough to fight the UFC looked to fill the fight with another option.

Lee (16-2) made a lot of waves when he defeated Michael Chiesa in June. This came in the wake of a press conference that resulted in punches being thrown leading up to the fight. Aside from his talents inside the cage, Lee gained a lot of fans with his brash behavior and trash talking. In the current state of the UFC it seems the loudest mouth gets fed, in this case it led Kevin Lee straight to an interim bout with Tony Ferguson.

 

THE ODDS

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Ferguson has opened as a -260 favorite. Lee comes in at +180. Line movement is currently trending in Ferguson’s favor and Cage Prophet agrees with the trend. We’ll probably see the sharp money continue to fall on Ferguson but hope to see casual interest tighten the line as the fight approaches.

 

UFC 214: Cage Prophet Predictions

It’s finally here! today is the day we get to see UFC 214 and it seems as though we can finally breath easy knowing that all fighters have weighed in successfully and made it to fight night. Here are my quick picks!

  • Manuwa -175
  • Knight -115
  • Fili by KO/TKO +200
  • Albu -158
  • Ortega +155

Those are my favorite picks to play and I’ve been involving Dober at -300 in parlays. I mostly want to enjoy the main card so I’m not advising bets. But you can see my main card picks in Cage Prophet vs. Everyone.

Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series: Week 3 Odds

The odds are in, the fighters are ready, Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series week 3 is about to kick off. This week’s card has very close lines in comparison to week 2, the heaviest favorite comes in at -200. While lines don’t always directly reflect the level of competition in a bout, on paper this card looks to be filled with closely contested fights.

Best bet: Look for Dan Ige +125 to keep his five fight win streak rolling tonight. I expect Dan to capitalize on his opponents inexperience Gomez Alvarez only 4-0 is still relatively untested in his pro career and this may be too much too soon for him. I like the dog at +125 in the first fight of the night.

Other than that I’m going to sit back and enjoy the show! Let us know on twitter who you think deserves the contract tonight.

 

UFC on FOX 25: Long Island Predictions

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UFC on Fox 25 in Long Island New York is finally here. Time to make some picks. I’m going to list all the bets I like and then we’ll break it down a little.

  • Gian Villante – 167 (By KO/TKO +120)
  • Does Villante vs. Cummins Go The Distance? NO – 145
  • Alex Oliveria +152 (By KO/TKO +600)
  • Bochniak +235
  • Kyle Bochniak/Jeremy Kennedy Under 2 1/2  +220

I’ve chosen to stay away from the main event here for a reason, hear me out. I really do believe Kelvin Gastelum -160 will defeat Chris Weidman, probably by KO/TKO. But Weidman is very good at getting take downs and securing rounds, if he can take Kelvin deep into this fight I think Weidman will win. That being said he needs to survive the first two rounds which is where Kelvin will be most dangerous. If I could live bet this I would have my money on Kelvin but if it goes past 2 rounds I think it’s Weidman’s fight to lose. So I’m just going to sit back and enjoy that one.

As for my bets: Gian Villante should be able to keep the fight standing against Cummins and test his chin. Both men have shown durability issues and I think Villante has the more technical striking so my pick is for Villante to come out on top, but could Cummins land a bomb? Yes, the power is definitely still there and Villante was wobbled multiple times against Rua before being put away in his last fight. I think a great play on this fight is the fight will not go the distance prop at -145.

Look for Oliveria to display his underrated anti wrestling to make the fight dirty in the clinch. Make no mistake about it Oliveria has the skills and the power to defeat LaFlare, I think this line is way off and +600 KO/TKO is too good for me not to touch. Cowboy Oliveria by KO/TKO.

Kyle Bochniak came on the Cage Prophet Podcast a couple weeks ago and emphatically stated his case against Jeremy Kennedy. Kennedy does his best work against the cage and likes to suck his opponents to the ground and grind them out with wrestling. Kyle is mobile, powerful, and has an underrated ground game. Look for Bochniak to keep this fight away from kennedy’s strengths and stand in the middle of the octagon throwing bombs. Bochniak +235 and under 2 1/2 rounds for +220 is great value. Those are my picks, let us know what you think in the comments below or on twitter.

Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders: Week 2

The second installment of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders is set to kick off in less than 24 hours. If it’s anything like the show’s debut, it will not disappoint. In the show’s debut Dana decided to award two fighters with UFC contracts, we will see how this week’s fighters fair in the eye’s of the boss man tomorrow.

The biggest betting favorite on this card is Sean O’Malley at -221, the 7-0 Bantamweight is only 22 years old. He has only won via decision once, in his other six victories he finished by either KO or Submission. Look for O’Malley to make a definitive case that he is not too young for the big show as he fights to lock in a UFC contract.

In the main event: an even pick em! Casey Kenney (6-0-1) will square off with Cee Jay Hamilton (11-4). In what looks to be a striker vs. grappler matchup, Hamilton brings the striking while Kenney touts a submission heavy record. While I don’t have a take on predictions for these fights I do think that this series is a very exciting way to see the new UFC blood to get excited for. Don’t forget to check out the ridiculousness that is Snoop Dog commentary, it’s hilariously uninformative.

UFC Fight Night Glasgow Odds Talk

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FAVORED PICKS

  • Gunnar Nelson -150
  • Cynthia Calvillo -200

DOG PICKS

  • Paul Felder +115
  • Paul Craig +185
  • Albert Morales +319

UFC Fight Night Glasgow is a great card for some underdog picks. Even with my favored picks the underdog opponents for those have a case to be made for a bet, specifically Calderwood at +185. A lot of people think her standup game will be too much for Cynthia Calvillo to handle, and they may be right. But, what I know for certain is Calvillo is a monster on the ground, and both of Calderwood’s UFC losses came by submission. This matchup is giving me flashbacks to Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz when the only argument to bet Karolina was “If she keeps the fight standing…” That argument isn’t good enough to bet Calderwood in this case. Yes, she has a 66% take down defense ratio, but when this fight inevitably finds its way to the mat, it will be all about Calvillo. I will take Cynthia Calvillo at -200 and would also suggest a prop bet for either ITD or SUB.

As for Gunnar Nelson, after dismantling Alan Jouban, I’m surprised this line is set so low against a #14 ranked opponent. Nelson is knocking at the door of the top five and I think after this fight we’ll be seeing Nelson entering the octagon against the likes of Magney or Masvidal. If not he’ll be heavily favored against anyone below the top ten so this is a great opportunity to get a profitable line on Nelson.

Now lets talk dogs. Let’s be honest, Felder should’t be a dog against Stevie Ray. Ray’s most recent victory over Joe Lauzon has been protested by many to be a robbery, and to be honest I agree. Overall Lauzon controlled the majority of the fight and fell victim to a late flurry in round three that won over the opinion of the judges. That’s not going to work with Felder, I see Felder as the best dog pick on this card and I expect him to expose Ray’s technical flaws in his standup game.

When it comes to Craig and Morales, Craig has a far superior ground game to his opponent Rountree, but Rountree has heavy hands and will certainly test Craig’s chin. If Craig is to get the job done I expect to see it on the ground, I suggest peppering Craig in to sweeten the deal on light parlay bets. Morales is worth a straight bet for light money, this is my “Disrespect” line of the week. He’s way more viable to win this fight than the line indicates at +319. He’s a well rounded fighter with a high finish percentage on both the ground and feet. His only loss came by way of KO from the hands of Thomas Almeida who is stiff competition for anyone in the division, Morales is my biggest dog pick of the night.

What do you think? We want to hear from you in the comments or Twitter! Don’t forget to check out the Cage Prophet Podcast for more weekly content.

TUF 25 Finale Bets

TUF 25 Finale is a light betting card for me, looking at the match ups on this card I would suggest saving your dough for UFC 213 on saturday. However, if you do want to throw some bets out there tonight I have a few suggestions.

  • Diakiese -240
  • Theodorou -110
  • Diakiese/Theodorou Parlay
  • Dog Pick: Ashley Yoder +285

That’s about it. I think Diakiese is on a freight train to the top of the division and this is just another fight for him to build on, Theodorou should get the job done (via DEC) against Tavares. Tavares has a very low finish percentage, this will be more of a 3 round grind than a slugfest, in which Theodorou should come out on top. Ashley Yoder is my dog pick, her opponent has a weak ground game which is where Yoder has an 80% finish rate, if she gets the fight to the ground look for her to get the SUB.

Odds Talk: UFC Fight Night 109 Predictions and Betting Picks

UFC Fight Night 109 will be taking place this Sunday, 11 AM for the American East coast and a shockingly early 8 AM for those of us in PST. While this card should be exciting to watch there aren’t too many sure bets for me. with that being said here are my favorites:

  • Alex Nicholson +140 (KO/TKO +325)
  • Chris Camozzi -180
  • Ben Saunders -110
  • Cirkunov -400 (Inside the Distance: -160)
  • Big Dog Bet: Glover Teixeira +270 (KO/TKO +600)

Some of these can be shied away from, namely Glover Teixeira and Chris Camozzi. In the case of Glover Teixeira the most likely outcome of this fight is to see Gustafsson victorious by decision, maybe a late TKO, but the power and wrestling prowess of Teixeira shouldn’t be discounted. At +270, Glover is worth a small wager to see him get the W. To maximize this bet I will be playing Teixeira to win inside the distance at +435. To win by KO/TKO is even greater at +600, which is the most likely method of Glover winning due to his powerful punches. With that being said, I would still just play ITD because a submission is always a possibility. In short don’t let the odds fool you there is great value in Glover with a small correctly played wager.

Chris Camozzi coming off two straight losses doesn’t seem to be the hottest ticket in town. But there is value in him, his losses came from Dan Kelly and Thales Leites. While these aren’t the top names of the division they are still solid competition and tough outings for Camozzi. In Camozzi’s opponents last four fights, Smith has only won two. Both by decision. I see this as an opportunity for Camozzi to settle into his rhythm without too much danger and establish his game plan. To me this fight looks like a decision victory for Camozzi, but we can always hope he gets the job done inside the distance.

As for my other picks, confident on all. When it comes to Nicholson, Saunders, and Cirkunov getting the job done its a mix and match parlay buffet. Maximize profits by taking Cirkunov inside the distance, which is my most confident play on the card. I expect to see Saunders get the job done on the ground via ground and pound KO/TKO or SUB, and Nicholson via KO at +325 is a great bet, but taking him straight up as a dog at +140 is a sure fire way to kick the card off.

What are your picks? be sure to share with Cage Prophet, and if you disagree we want to hear why. We’re always ready to discuss our picks and share our reasoning if we gloss over some details in the article. And for the bettors that pay for services, follow us and see how much money you make for free before paying for a service. Because the betting services will charge you for what you get here for free. No one has all the answers, just educated predictions.