UFC on FOX 25: Long Island Predictions

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UFC on Fox 25 in Long Island New York is finally here. Time to make some picks. I’m going to list all the bets I like and then we’ll break it down a little.

  • Gian Villante – 167 (By KO/TKO +120)
  • Does Villante vs. Cummins Go The Distance? NO – 145
  • Alex Oliveria +152 (By KO/TKO +600)
  • Bochniak +235
  • Kyle Bochniak/Jeremy Kennedy Under 2 1/2  +220

I’ve chosen to stay away from the main event here for a reason, hear me out. I really do believe Kelvin Gastelum -160 will defeat Chris Weidman, probably by KO/TKO. But Weidman is very good at getting take downs and securing rounds, if he can take Kelvin deep into this fight I think Weidman will win. That being said he needs to survive the first two rounds which is where Kelvin will be most dangerous. If I could live bet this I would have my money on Kelvin but if it goes past 2 rounds I think it’s Weidman’s fight to lose. So I’m just going to sit back and enjoy that one.

As for my bets: Gian Villante should be able to keep the fight standing against Cummins and test his chin. Both men have shown durability issues and I think Villante has the more technical striking so my pick is for Villante to come out on top, but could Cummins land a bomb? Yes, the power is definitely still there and Villante was wobbled multiple times against Rua before being put away in his last fight. I think a great play on this fight is the fight will not go the distance prop at -145.

Look for Oliveria to display his underrated anti wrestling to make the fight dirty in the clinch. Make no mistake about it Oliveria has the skills and the power to defeat LaFlare, I think this line is way off and +600 KO/TKO is too good for me not to touch. Cowboy Oliveria by KO/TKO.

Kyle Bochniak came on the Cage Prophet Podcast a couple weeks ago and emphatically stated his case against Jeremy Kennedy. Kennedy does his best work against the cage and likes to suck his opponents to the ground and grind them out with wrestling. Kyle is mobile, powerful, and has an underrated ground game. Look for Bochniak to keep this fight away from kennedy’s strengths and stand in the middle of the octagon throwing bombs. Bochniak +235 and under 2 1/2 rounds for +220 is great value. Those are my picks, let us know what you think in the comments below or on twitter.

Mayweather vs. McGregor: Public Opinion Continues to Change

Hailed by many to be the sh*t show of our generation the May Mac World tour had it’s ups and downs (Geez New York was painful). Vegas line movement has been all over the place as bettors swarm to the sports books in droves throwing money at tellers faces in hopes of cashing on what looks to be the biggest fight in decades. Conor opened at +900 and has now dipped as low as +400 in some books. But why the change? It appears the media tour has spurred a more significant change in public opinion than anyone thought. According to a Cage Prophet poll of 178 people, 28% of respondents claim the media tour changed their opinion on how the fight will go.

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That’s right. Watching Floyd and Conor talk shit for four days straight has changed the opinion of 28% of people. Pretty impressive, but the more telling stat is the 35% that are more interested even though they didn’t change their opinion. This is important because it shows that the media tour worked. It did it’s job by either changing people’s minds or making them more interested. And at the end of the day that’s all the promotion wants: to sell the fight.

Jorge Masvidal on MMA Eye Poking And Nelson-Ponzinibbio Controversy

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In a recent interview on BJ Penn Radio, Jorge Masvidal pulled no punches sharing his views on eye poking in MMA. “It’s something that they need to work on dramatically.” Masvidal stated when talking about the recent fight directly effected by eye poking between Gunnar Nelson and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Gunnar Nelson suffered a first round KO against Santiago Ponzinibbio in the main event of UFC Glasgow. What looked to be a minor eye poke in real time later proved to be multiple fight altering eye pokes that appear to be deliberately delivered. Seen Here:

Not Deliberate in any way right? Of course not. The most concerning part about eye poking is obviously health concerns, it is illegal for a reason. But secondary to that is you gain significant advantage over your opponent when you damage their vision, even accidentally. If a fighter becomes very good at camouflaging intentional eye pokes as accidental byproducts of defense or offense it can be used as a tool to gain an edge on their opponent, in other words: cheating. The rules need to be changed to protect fighters from these actions, whether it turns into automatic point deductions or more rest time to recover. Masvidal’s argument on BJ Penn Radio was a compelling one:

“If you’ve ever been poked in the eye, man, it sucks,” he said. “It sucks in practice, and it sucks even more in the fight. Depending how hard you get poked, you can man up and keep going –I’ve done things like that – but your vision is off. One eye is swollen at the time. For some reason, you’re getting that blurred double vision, because one eye is at a different focus than the other eye that didn’t get poked. That takes time [to recover from]. That’s not like, oh a second later, because the doctor looked at it and you said you’re ok. We’re only saying we’re ok because we’re fighters.

“There needs to be a legitimate rule, if anybody touches the eye, well I should be able to get five to ten minutes,” he said. “The most important thing in the fight is vision. If I can’t see, well I’m going to get beat up, you know? It’s crazy. They need to do that. They need to stay on top of that. I don’t understand what the big nonsense is.

“It’s BS. When I fought Larkin, he gave me a pretty hard eye-poke. I had to stop. The doctor came in, and asked ‘can you see?’ [I said] ‘Yeah, I can see,’ but I really couldn’t see at that time that he asked me. I had a big blur in my vision. But of course if I say I can’t see, I’m not fighting. So, I can’t see, and the doctors were like ‘ok let’s go fight.’ What do you mean ‘let’s go fight?’ Give me my fucking time. It’s not like I poked myself in the eye. What’s fair is to let me heal up. Let me say when my eye is ready. But they don’t do that. I think I had about 15 seconds, something like that, 20 seconds.”

And there-in lies the problem. The victim of the eye poke is subject to fight at a disadvantage with no time to recover, while the offender gains an upper hand with no consequences. Cage Prophet agrees that the rules need to be adjusted to prevent eye poking. How about you?

Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series: Week 2 Recap

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I’m hooked on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. DWTCS is everything TUF isn’t and I love it. No drama, no bullshit, just fighting. Well, fighting and Snoop Dog ripping blunts whilst sipping on gin and juice. After years of The Ultimate Fighter playing up dramatic school yard verbal battles it’s so refreshing to finally just see athletes compete for a chance to achieve their dream. They don’t have to be held hostage in a house with no contact to the outside world, they just have to show up and fight. This is how it should be and for that I applaud the UFC for creating this new format for fans to see the UFC newcomers fight for a chance at a contract. If you missed week two I suggest going back and checking it out. At the very least you have to see Sean O’Malley dismantle Alfred Khashakyan earning himself the lone contract of the evening.

That’s right, only one contract was awarded last night. This came as a shock to many fans who believed that Thanh Le deserved a UFC contract for his second round KO victory over American Top Team prospect Lazar Stojadinovic. Le displayed great technique, composure, and Octagon control. Overall, Le was in my opinion the most technically sound and well rounded fighter. I thought he displayed more than enough to get a shot in the UFC. With that being said, Sean O’Malley brought the flash and showmanship that Dana was looking for and was the only fighter to walk away with a contract. Something tells me this won’t be the last we see of Le, only time will tell though. Listed below are the full results.

Casey Kenney def. Cee Jay Hamilton via Unanimous Decision

Sidney Outlaw def. Michael Cora via Unanimous Decision

Thanh Le def. Lazar Stojadinovic via Round 2 KO

Sean O’Malley def. Alfred Khashakyan via Round 1 KO

Dan Spohn def. Angel DeAnda via Round 1 Submission (Arm Triangle)

Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders: Week 2

The second installment of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contenders is set to kick off in less than 24 hours. If it’s anything like the show’s debut, it will not disappoint. In the show’s debut Dana decided to award two fighters with UFC contracts, we will see how this week’s fighters fair in the eye’s of the boss man tomorrow.

The biggest betting favorite on this card is Sean O’Malley at -221, the 7-0 Bantamweight is only 22 years old. He has only won via decision once, in his other six victories he finished by either KO or Submission. Look for O’Malley to make a definitive case that he is not too young for the big show as he fights to lock in a UFC contract.

In the main event: an even pick em! Casey Kenney (6-0-1) will square off with Cee Jay Hamilton (11-4). In what looks to be a striker vs. grappler matchup, Hamilton brings the striking while Kenney touts a submission heavy record. While I don’t have a take on predictions for these fights I do think that this series is a very exciting way to see the new UFC blood to get excited for. Don’t forget to check out the ridiculousness that is Snoop Dog commentary, it’s hilariously uninformative.

Mayweather McGregor World Tour. 3 Down. One To Go.

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The May-Mac World Tour is in full swing, 3 stops down and one to go. If you haven’t been paying attention much here is the tour in a nut shell: Floyd showed off a hundred million dollar check in Los Angeles. McGregor told Floyd he can’t read in Toronto. In New York Conor walked the stage topless as Floyd screamed unintelligibly into a microphone. And Dana White’s head almost exploded from excitement in all three cities.

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That’s about it. I’m sure London will bring some shocking new revelations to the table. The fight has already been sold, but alas, the show must go on. Cage Prophet predicts a somewhat planned physical confrontation in London to get the over the top mainstream News coverage they’ve been fishing for. And for that I will once again tune into the 4th and final Presser.

UFC Fight Night Glasgow Odds Talk

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FAVORED PICKS

  • Gunnar Nelson -150
  • Cynthia Calvillo -200

DOG PICKS

  • Paul Felder +115
  • Paul Craig +185
  • Albert Morales +319

UFC Fight Night Glasgow is a great card for some underdog picks. Even with my favored picks the underdog opponents for those have a case to be made for a bet, specifically Calderwood at +185. A lot of people think her standup game will be too much for Cynthia Calvillo to handle, and they may be right. But, what I know for certain is Calvillo is a monster on the ground, and both of Calderwood’s UFC losses came by submission. This matchup is giving me flashbacks to Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz when the only argument to bet Karolina was “If she keeps the fight standing…” That argument isn’t good enough to bet Calderwood in this case. Yes, she has a 66% take down defense ratio, but when this fight inevitably finds its way to the mat, it will be all about Calvillo. I will take Cynthia Calvillo at -200 and would also suggest a prop bet for either ITD or SUB.

As for Gunnar Nelson, after dismantling Alan Jouban, I’m surprised this line is set so low against a #14 ranked opponent. Nelson is knocking at the door of the top five and I think after this fight we’ll be seeing Nelson entering the octagon against the likes of Magney or Masvidal. If not he’ll be heavily favored against anyone below the top ten so this is a great opportunity to get a profitable line on Nelson.

Now lets talk dogs. Let’s be honest, Felder should’t be a dog against Stevie Ray. Ray’s most recent victory over Joe Lauzon has been protested by many to be a robbery, and to be honest I agree. Overall Lauzon controlled the majority of the fight and fell victim to a late flurry in round three that won over the opinion of the judges. That’s not going to work with Felder, I see Felder as the best dog pick on this card and I expect him to expose Ray’s technical flaws in his standup game.

When it comes to Craig and Morales, Craig has a far superior ground game to his opponent Rountree, but Rountree has heavy hands and will certainly test Craig’s chin. If Craig is to get the job done I expect to see it on the ground, I suggest peppering Craig in to sweeten the deal on light parlay bets. Morales is worth a straight bet for light money, this is my “Disrespect” line of the week. He’s way more viable to win this fight than the line indicates at +319. He’s a well rounded fighter with a high finish percentage on both the ground and feet. His only loss came by way of KO from the hands of Thomas Almeida who is stiff competition for anyone in the division, Morales is my biggest dog pick of the night.

What do you think? We want to hear from you in the comments or Twitter! Don’t forget to check out the Cage Prophet Podcast for more weekly content.

UFC 213 Results

UFC 213 is in the books, listed below are the winners and method of victory

  • Robert Whittaker defeated Yoel Romero by unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
  • Alistair Overeem defeated Fabricio Werdum by majority decision (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
  • Curtis Blaydes defeated Daniel Omielanczuk by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
  • Anthony Pettis defeated Jim Miller by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
  • Rob Font defeated Douglas Silva de Andrade by submission (guillotine choke)
  • Oleksiy Oliynyk Defeated Travis Browne by submission (Neck crank/modified Choke)
  • Chad Laprise defeated Brian Camozzi via round 3 TKO
  • Thiago Santos defeated Gerald Meerschaert via round 2 TKO (Hammer Fists)
  • Belal Muhammed defeated Jordan Mein by unanimous decision
  • Trevin Giles defeated James Bochnovic by way of KO in round 2
  • Cody Stamann defeats Terrion Ware via unanimous decision

 

TUF 25 Finale Bets

TUF 25 Finale is a light betting card for me, looking at the match ups on this card I would suggest saving your dough for UFC 213 on saturday. However, if you do want to throw some bets out there tonight I have a few suggestions.

  • Diakiese -240
  • Theodorou -110
  • Diakiese/Theodorou Parlay
  • Dog Pick: Ashley Yoder +285

That’s about it. I think Diakiese is on a freight train to the top of the division and this is just another fight for him to build on, Theodorou should get the job done (via DEC) against Tavares. Tavares has a very low finish percentage, this will be more of a 3 round grind than a slugfest, in which Theodorou should come out on top. Ashley Yoder is my dog pick, her opponent has a weak ground game which is where Yoder has an 80% finish rate, if she gets the fight to the ground look for her to get the SUB.

We’re Back!

Hello Wizards! The prophet is back in the saddle, I took the last two weeks off to get married and go on a honeymoon with the Wife in Mexico. But we’re back to work and the MMA gods have a great summer lined up for us. Thank you for staying up to date with CageProphet.com, I appreciate you!